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Cheating: Trust and Traitors in Chess

@freaking_timer said in #8:
> I think with the tweet quoted in the blog he does not want to accuse you but instead the <2600 rated players whose rating he made red in the table
You are right, yet in the given context ("Cheating Tuesdays", GM Kramnik's other statemements on the topic) it looks offensive. Who knows, maybe I might have ended red as well if I were in poor form at my last rated blitz tournament or if I played some tournament with many underrated youngsters instead. I also find it strange when someone performs way better online than over the board in the long run, but it is also true that the FIDE ratings sometimes do not work so well, especially in more isolated countries where chess is booming, but few local events are rated (which is often the case with rapid and blitz), and for young players, who often face similarly underrated young opponents. (I do not think that switching to Glicko would improve the situation significantly and that FIDE ratings could be done much better.)
The metrics selected by GM Kramnik (average amount of blunders with 10 and more seconds left) might be related to cheating, yet it ignores many important aspects, including the percentage of blunders made with less than 10 seconds left. (A very important aspect in this context.) It would also be nice to have an explicit definition of a blunder. It is much easier to define a blunder than to define a great move, yet there is no unproblematic definition of a blunder, either.
Online cheating obviously exists, but it should be fought with very accurate analyses and with Zoom and cameras, in exceptional cases even with arbiters at the venues. Public accusations based on problematic statistics do not make the situation better.
P.S.: It turns out that some tweets can ruin one's sleep even more effectively than an evening online tournament.
Metrics selected by Kramnik are junk in statistical terms.

Just to give an example if playing an endgame where I play as white and have a lone king on h1. My opponent has a dark squared bishop and a king and h pawn. I can literally premove Kh1 to an adjacent square and back. My opponent can make any random bishop move in the hope of flagging me. It's also practically impossible to blunder as evaluation is 0.0 as bishop is wrong colour and I imagine depending on lag can probably make 50-100 moves without a blunder in last 10 seconds. Repeat that a few times and stats are seriously skewed. On the other hand a complex tactical position would probably very easily result in a blunder. If his algorithm doesn't differentiate between those two scenarios then any numbers obtained are more likely to reflect positions reached than players playing them.

You could also argue that it's possible that someone cheating with an engine is less likely to have 10 seconds or less remaining because engine will instantly tell them right move to make so they spend less time thinking so a large amount of games with time trouble might actually have a negative correlation to cheating.

That's why people like Ken Regan have more sophisticated methods precisely because crude analysis Kramnik performs doesn't properly sanitise input data so it's comparing completely unrelated positions and as anyone in tech says when processing the data rubbish in, rubbish out.

In the Carlsen vs Niemann case Carlsen was charged by FIDE of "reckless or manifestly unfounded accusation of chess cheating". Carlsen was cleared of that charge but I imagine if Kramnik continues his current actions eventually he'll reach the point where his behaviour is considered reckless.

I'll also add that I don't know if it's accidental or not but in his tweet Magnus Carlsen's name is in red that potentially indicates that Kramnik thinks he's a cheater. Either that or he has so little care in the way he tweets his accusations that he's accidentally accusing players he doesn't consider cheats.
kramnik is right, since the chessbot came out everyone is a genius....
Obviously the cheater doesn't want to be persecuted, that's why there's so much fuss... They come out in a rush to defend the rot trying to silence the real problem and that is that online chess is full of cheats, one moment you beat 2400 and the next you lose with a 1100 Someone explain it to me... of course it's easier to hide it and do nothing about the straw tail.
@Sharingam said in #13:
> kramnik is right, since the chessbot came out everyone is a genius....
It is not true, just your comment is pretty silly. It might be better to search for the facts first before accusing other people.
Please look at these links from OTB blitz tournaments:
ratings.fide.com/calculations.phtml?id_number=309095&period=2015-01-01&rating=2
chess-results.com/tnr488469.aspx?lan=1&art=9&fed=CZE&snr=1
chess-results.com/tnr835051.aspx?lan=1&art=4&flag=30
chess-results.com/tnr190790.aspx?lan=1&art=1&flag=30
chess-results.com/tnr214703.aspx?lan=1&art=4 (unrated one, by the way)
chess-results.com/tnr588607.aspx?lan=1&art=1&flag=30
I do not want to boast with these results, just defend myself when needed.
@KMcGeoch said in #12:
I completely agree with your objections against GM Kramnik's metrics. By the way, I had such a game where I premoved 25 moves in a row at the end, yet they were not difficult at all, they were all strictly forced and easy to premove: www.chess.com/game/live/97956071337
Good metrics obviously have to take the sharpness of the position into the account. In some blocked and quiet positions it is much easier to make a good move than to make a mistake.
Say, Ke1, pa4, c4, e4, g4 x Ke8, pa5, c5, e5, g5, to take an extreme example. Or even in an endgame like Kg2, Ra1, pf2, g3, h2 x Kg7, Rb8, pf7, g6, h7.
I flag cheaters regularly but it takes the official/ professional detection-systems often months before it comes to the same conclusion.
Meanwhile those cheaters can make hundreds of more victims before they are finally caught.

I can give you several examples of this on lichess and chess.com (so nobody has a bullet-proof detection-system).

I fully agree that it is not good to accuse players from cheating whom didn't cheat at all. On the other hand I also understand the frustration of dozen of titled players about the official/ professional detection-systems which are clearly insufficient to create a safe environment for humans to play.

As Magnus Carlsen (ambassador of chess.com) recently admitted, online chess is today not sufficiently secure to offer official tournaments with prizes open to the wide public.
@RealDavidNavara
I've the impression that in online Chess960 there is much less cheating than in online normal chess.

What is your take on that as expert in Chess960?
@mvhk said in #19:
> @RealDavidNavara
> I've the impression that in online Chess960 there is much less cheating than in online normal chess.
>
> What is your take on that as expert in Chess960?
I also believe that there is less cheating in Chess960 than in standard online chess. Not having the technical background, I just guess that it is related to a large number of starting positions and to unusual castlings.